AUD Holds Near Highs as RBA, Fed Risks Drive Flows

2 July 2025, 03:13

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Key Takeaways:

*AUD firm as softer USD and risk-on flows support gains

*RBA seen cutting twice in H2, but July meeting pivotal

*Retail sales, U.S. data next catalysts for AUD/USD move

Market Summary:

The Australian Dollar held firm near recent highs as investors awaited clarity on both domestic data and shifting global monetary dynamics. Improving risk appetite, combined with lingering uncertainty over the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) next move, has helped anchor the AUD/USD pair near the 0.6600 handle.

Domestically, traders are eyeing Australia’s May Retail Sales figures due this week, which are expected to show a modest rebound after April’s decline. A stronger-than-expected print may signal resilient consumer demand, potentially limiting the scope for near-term RBA rate cuts. However, subdued spending trends and elevated household debt levels continue to fuel expectations of further easing, with markets still pricing in up to 50bps of RBA cuts by year-end. The central bank’s July 8 meeting will be pivotal in shaping the policy outlook.

Globally, the U.S. dollar remains under pressure as the Federal Reserve adopts a cautious, data-dependent stance. While solid U.S. labor and services data have kept a September rate cut on the table, the broader tone has softened following dovish commentary from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and recent inflation prints. If upcoming U.S. jobs data disappoint, the AUD may find fresh tailwinds amid narrowing yield differentials.

Risk sentiment has also turned more supportive for the Aussie. The de-escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and reduced focus on U.S.–China trade tariffs have encouraged flows into higher-beta currencies. Seasonal patterns, which typically favor the AUD in the second half of the year, add another layer of support.

For now, the AUD’s path will be shaped less by outright monetary divergence and more by the evolving global growth narrative and sentiment toward risk assets. A soft U.S. landing scenario and dovish Fed could see AUD/USD grind higher, while any deterioration in global outlook or surprise hawkish turn from the RBA could cap gains or reverse recent strength.

Technical Analysis

AUDUSD, H4

AUD/USD has extended its upward trajectory, climbing steadily within a well-defined ascending channel and now testing the upper boundary near the 0.6600 mark. This advance follows a series of higher lows and reflects broader bullish sentiment driven by a weaker U.S. Dollar and improved global risk appetite.

Despite this constructive technical backdrop, caution flags are beginning to surface beneath the hood. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently sits at 62, well below overbought territory but showing signs of plateauing. The lack of acceleration in RSI momentum suggests buyers may be losing steam as price nears resistance.More notably, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is exhibiting early signs of a potential momentum divergence. While both MACD and signal lines remain in positive territory, the histogram has begun to contract, reflecting waning bullish momentum. A bearish crossover here could precede a pause in the uptrend or a near-term pullback toward interim support at 0.6530.

This setup creates a technical standoff: on one side, the channel breakout bulls looking for continuation toward 0.6645 or even 0.6715; On the other, a warning from slowing momentum that the rally may be running out of fuel. A confirmed daily close above 0.6600 would strengthen the bullish case, while failure to break through could shift focus back toward consolidation or a deeper retracement.

Resistance Levels: 0.6715, 0.6645

Support Levels: 0.6530, 0.6415

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